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Forecast your overrun risk.

Turn your project risks into a dollar exposure with expected monetary value, then see whether your contingency actually covers it.

Cost overrun risk uses expected monetary value: for each risk, multiply its probability by its dollar impact, then add them up. That total is your expected exposure. Divide it by the contract value for an overrun-risk percentage, and compare that to your contingency. If the exposure is higher than the reserve, the project is under-protected.

Your risks
Expected value$100,000
Expected value$72,000
Expected value$45,000
Total expected exposure
$217,000
Overrun risk
5.4%
of contract value

Compare this against your planned contingency. If it is higher, the reserve is likely too thin.

Risks are not static. Neither is the exposure.

This prices the risks you list today. POD reads the change and cost signals your team already records and keeps the exposure and the contingency burndown moving together, so you see the gap open before it becomes an overrun.

We won't invent numbers you didn't give us.

Watch exposure vs reserve on your project.

POD turns the reports you already produce into a live risk and contingency view. As complete as your data.

Last updated: July 2026